Current Bulletin Issue - Volume 17, Bulletin 3, September 2004

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Bosnia Kosovo Turkey Egypt P.L.O

Syria Iraq Saudi Arabia Philippine Republic

DISENGAGEMENT, JEBALYA AND SHARON'S FUTURE

Ariel Sharon's plan to retreat from the Gaza Strip after uprooting the Jewish settlements he helped to build there has run into difficulties. He reconfirmed it in his opening speech of the winter session of the Knesset, but the Knesset voted against it by 53 votes to 44. The Labor Party's support did not materialize, 15 Likud MKs including the Speaker of the Knesset and four MKs of the National Religious Party abstained. Two other NRP members voted against. Sharon reacted by declaring that he will punish the Likud MKs who did not vote. Realizing that they have nothing to seek in the Likud for as long as Sharon leads it, some of them may leave the party. All this makes elections in 2005 very likely - and before them the two big parties will choose their leaders. It is even money whether Sharon, who split the Likud by trying to force it to abandon its ideology and refused to accept its negative vote on his "disengagement" plan, will be chosen. If he is, Likud is likely to lose heavily in the election - to Shas and the National Union as well as to Labor - especially if the promises Bush made to Sharon are not honored - for whatever reason.

Meanwhile, the Kassam rockets falling on Sderot killed two children and could not be ignored. The army occupied much of the huge Jebalya refugee camp from which most of the Kassams were launched. The operation yielded a provisional harvest of several Kassam workshops, not to speak of 90 terrorists killed - about 90% of the total fatalities on the Palestinian side. These heavy Palestinian losses cause some tension between Fatah and other terrorist bodies, but the rockets continue to be fired at a reduced rate. Unfortunately, only very much larger Palestinian casualties are likely to stop them. Talking to terrorists never pays, unless their position is so weak that they are close to surrender. However, the parameters of Israel's intervention will be dictated by the necessity to prevent foreign intervention on the Palestinian side.

During the four years of intifada Palestinian terrorism was often aided by support from Western Europe and "non-aligned" states. The International Court of Justice at the Hague also helped it. Western Europe tends to regard Palestinian terrorists as "freedom fighters" and has still not decided whether it is anti-American or not.