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Volume 14, Digest 7, July 2002

Nigeria
Algeria
Egypt
Turkey
P.L.O.
Jordan
Lebanon
Saudi Arabia
Kazakhstan
Philippine Republic

Points to Note and Developments to Watch

1. Algeria and Egypt are excellent examples of the dilemma faced by Moslem states and their would-be Western sympathizers. In both Algeria and Egypt, the results of elections or by-elections won by Islamic fundamentalist parties were voided. In Algeria, a bloody civil war has continued ever since. In Egypt, outbreaks of revolutionary violence have been prevented only by ruthless repression. The dilemma is that holding genuinely free elections is likely to result in power for an Islamic fundamentalist Government that would promptly proceed to re-establish a dictatorship. And this time, the dictatorship would be strongly and openly anti-Western. Islam always favored strong rulers, who were either hereditary or gained power by force. Given the present trends in the Moslem world, democracy is simply impossible there.

2. The "quartet" of Middle East peace brokers met in London to discuss financial support for Palestinian reforms. The officials from the EU, Russia, the UN and the US are to be joined by representatives from Japan, Norway, the IMF and the World Bank. Lawrence Silverman, special assistant to the US State Department's bureau of Near Eastern affairs, said in London that the group would plan how to work with the PLO on a 100-day reform blueprint drawn up by the Palestinian Authority (PA), which a Western diplomat described as 'a good package." Foreign donors briefed on the plan in the Gaza Strip welcomed it.

Israel says violence must stop before it withdraws its army from seven cities retaken after Palestinian suicide attacks killed 26 people last month. It withheld some $600 million in tax revenue since 2000 because the PA sponsors terrorist groups.

The quartet's four regional envoys, who liaise frequently in Jerusalem, met in London following US President George W. Bush's speech on Middle East policy, in which he told Palestinians to change their leaders if they wanted a state. Other quartet members back the need for Palestinian reform, but want to deal with Yasser Arafat. Colin Powell invited UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan, EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana and Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov to New York to follow up Bush's speech. Bush said in his speech that Syria "must choose the right side in the war on terror" if it wanted to be included in peace talks.