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Copyright © 2002-2003

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Current Issue - Volume 14, Digest 4, April 2002

Sudan
P.L.O.
Lebanon
Saudi Arabia
Iran
Pakistan

Points to Note and Developments to Watch

1. Prior to his arrival in the Middle East, Colin Powell obtained Tony Blair's agreement for joint action against Iraq and mobilized the European Community and Russia for a joint conference to remind the world that the US is the superpower. However, while this conference may have agreed on cease-fire terms for Israel and the PLO, it is unlikely to have papered over the differences in the participants' attitudes to Iraq. That the EC has been known to describe President Putin's attempts to eradicate Chechen terrorism as "genocide" did not help. In Israel, Powell had to face a suicide bombing in West Jerusalem by Arafat's Al-Aqsa Martyrs' Brigades that claimed six dead plus some 80 injured and a friendly yet determined Ariel Sharon, who explained that the army would not be withdrawn until it had accomplished its task. He also provided clear evidence that Arafat was personally involved in ordering and financing terrorism. This terrorism, apart from its obvious anti-Israeli purpose, is intended to postpone and hopefully avert American military action against Iraq. On the eve of Powell's mission, the Arab states issued a Declaration at the conclusion of their Beirut Summit demanding the lifting of UN sanctions on Iraq imposed for its 1990 invasion of Kuwait and stressing "our total rejection of any attack on Iraq." So if President Bush wants to do this, he should be busy preparing his armed forces and his active allies — Britain and Turkey — to strike as soon as possible. Neither the Arab states nor the EU will underwrite the attack before it takes place.

2. The number of active terrorists and their superiors killed and captured by Israeli forces in Ramallah, Jenin, Nablus, Tulkarm, Qalqilya, Bethlehem, Hebron and smaller towns in Judea-Samaria runs into many hundreds. Huge amounts of military equipment, ammunition and explosives were captured too. Palestinian terrorism will now be on a smaller scale. Its eradication requires not a phony "peace settlement" but the continued occupation of the areas from which Israel withdrew.

3. The UN's impotence in dealing with Moslem terrorism is shown up by Hezbollah's treatment of UN observers (see Lebanon section) and no active reaction to the murder of two TIPH observers in the Hebron area.

4. After 19 years of civil war claiming two million lives — mainly non-Moslem — the UN has still not passed a resolution demanding independence for southern Sudan. (See Sudan section.)


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