In the light of Delhi’s overwhelmingly pro-Arab attitude and hesitation to deal openly with Israeli leaders in the past, the Indian government’s decision to host Ariel Sharon is indeed a watershed. Jerusalem’s long-held view that Israeli and Indian long term interests converge and the persistent efforts of Israeli officials to seek Indian friendship have finally come to fruition, as the two countries appear to embark on building a strong alliance in the 21st century.
The signing of six major agreements during Sharon’s visit significantly strengthened Israel’s ties with India - an important developing country. These agreements focus on cooperation in combating illicit drug trafficking, environment, health, education and culture, besides waiving visa requirements for holders of diplomatic, service and official passports. Israeli officials and businessmen discussed with their Indian counterparts a plan for doubling annual bilateral trade from the current $1.5 billion to $3 billion by the end of 2004, while the two countries’ leaders also discussed the importance of establishing a free trade regime between them and diversifying their trade.
Delhi’s public expression of friendship toward the Jewish state – especially at a time when the violence in the Middle East continues – clearly reflects a fundamental shift in India’s strategic priorities in the Middle East. Acknowledging the importance of its ties with Israel, India’s government seems to have successfully unlinked its ties with Jerusalem from the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
The Indian leadership took the utmost care not to raise any controversial issues - like the situation in the occupied territories or the plight of Yasser Arafat - during Sharon’s visit. Moreover, to the comfort of both Indian and Israeli officials, the low-key protest demonstrations by opposition parties other than the Congress Party and by some Muslim groups suggest that
Indian public opinion favors closer ties with Israel. The traditionally pro-Arab Congress Party’s endorsement of Sharon’s visit signifies that any change of government in Delhi will not affect the booming ties between the two countries.
Seeing much warmth, interest and admiration among Indians towards the Jewish state, Israeli officials were satisfied with Sharon’s India visit. As Israel still struggles for legitimacy in the Asian family of nations and as the sea-lanes increasingly become lifelines of international trade and security, relations with Delhi assume greater significance for Israel’s long term Asia policy. Indeed, relations with India could constitute a pillar on which Israel’s unsatisfactory relations with the Third World could be constructed, further legitimizing Israel’s acceptance on the Asian continent.
Deliberately, no defense or military agreement was signed during Sharon’s visit. Nevertheless, cooperation in the field of defense and security unquestionably constitutes the core of Indo-Israeli ties. In recent years, India has emerged as the largest single destination for Israeli defense exports, overtaking Turkey, and Israel is about to become the largest arms supplier to India, replacing Russia.
Defense sources estimate that Israel’s weapons/technology sales to India are valued at nearly $1.5 billion annually. These include: surface-to-air missiles, advanced avionics, sophisticated sensors to monitor cross-border traffic, remotely piloted drones and artillery. In addition, the Israeli Defense Forces are engaged in training Indian Special Forces in various counter-terrorism operations. Against this background, and given the terrorist threat faced by both countries, their intelligence agencies have established a mutually beneficial relationship.
Despite Delhi’s past overtly pro-Arab policies vis-à-vis Israel, Jerusalem perceives India as a friendly country with similar long term strategic interests and therefore has no major objections to selling it advanced weapons and technology. Moreover, the huge Indian defense market has given the Israeli defense industry a crucial boost, helping it to overcome the crippling recession of the past several years. The prospective deal including the sale of three Phalcon airborne early-warning systems worth over $1 billion – to which the United States has lifted its objections - will further deepen the bond between the two countries.
Negotiations are underway on other defense deals - electronic warfare systems, Searcher-II and Heron unmanned aerial vehicles and Barak missiles. Indian leaders have shown much interest in Israel’s Arrow missile defense system and also in acquiring a sea-based second-strike nuclear capability by using Israeli Dolphin class submarines stationed in the Persian Gulf.
While eager to build a strategic alliance with India by offering a wide range of modern weaponry, Ariel Sharon expressed some concerns over India’s improving ties with Iran – a country Israel regards as the biggest long term threat to its security. At the same time, he reminded his hosts that the spirit of Indo-Israeli friendship should also be reflected in various international forums, especially at the United Nations.
Notwithstanding the current Delhi-Tehran convergence of economic interests, it would not be in the interest of India to sell weapons and/or advanced technology to Iran because 1) such a step will affects its relations with other countries of the region and 2) Iran itself could emerge as a security threat to India if fundamentalists succeed in maintaining their influence on policymaking. It was against this background that the Indian leadership gave “unequivocal assurances” to the Israeli premier that India would not provide Iran with any weapon or technology that could pose a threat to the security of Israel.
Similarly, on the issue of India’s voting in international bodies, Indian officials are stressing that Delhi has already begun the process of reviewing its international position on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. However, they stress that such a review or policy change could only be a gradual process. India has stopped sponsoring anti-Israel resolutions at the United Nations and might well start to abstain from voting on them in the near future. “Given the convergence of Indo-Israeli relations at the beginning of the 21st century, it is just a matter of time until we decisively relinquish our traditional approach,” asserted a senior Indian diplomat.
Building a special and equitable relationship with India is a major diplomatic and strategic achievement for Israel in the post-Cold War era. Israel’s close strategic ties with India in general and their alleged cooperation in the nuclear field created many serious concerns in the Arab world, as these are broadly perceived in Arab states as working to their strategic and political disadvantage.
Once completely marginalized and constantly condemned, Israel is today gaining an important place in the strategic equation between the Middle East and South Asia. Indeed, the emerging Delhi-Jerusalem strategic alliance may drive the Pakistani leadership to recognize the Jewish state and even establish diplomatic ties with it. Pakistan’s recognition, if it does materialize, would be a big diplomatic coup for Israel. It would set an example for non-Middle Eastern countries to take similar action. However, Israeli leaders should refrain from haste in this matter because of the shaky nature of the regime in Islamabad and the tensions between India and Pakistan over Kashmir.
Sharon’s visit might also lay the foundation of a Delhi-Jerusalem-Washington strategic triangle, as the leaders of India and Israel exchanged their views on the issue. Both Indian and Israeli leadership have publicly favored such a strategic alliance of democracies in fighting the menace of global terrorism. Although, for the time being, the American administration has given a cool response to the idea, a large number of American policymakers and think-tanks have shown interest in such an axis of democracies, which has the potential of bringing stability and security to South Asia and the Middle East – two of the most volatile regions in the world.
In short, Sharon’s India visit has successfully strengthened the increasingly prevalent view in Delhi and Jerusalem that their broad-based strategic alliance is mutually beneficial in the short term, as well as in the long term. Today, the elevated Indo-Israel relationship has entered a new phase of maturity and endurance that will be reflected more strikingly in the years to come.
