For wheat farmer Osman Ozturk, Turkey's economic slide means that all he can afford to feed his family is bread with sliced boiled potatoes mixed with mint and dried red peppers. He is so disgusted with mainstream politicians that he plans to vote for an increasingly popular Islamic party in the national election on November 3rd. He is not alone.

Opinion polls say the religious-oriented Justice and Development Party could emerge as the biggest party in this NATO nation and might even get a majority in parliament. This could mean another political upheaval for a country long caught between Europe and Asia, religion and secularism, democracy and military rule.

Turkey's Government has been pushing for membership in the European Union. Many analysts think a victory for the Islamic party could slow that effort. Its victory might also cause tensions with Turkey's fiercely secular military, which in 1997 pressured an Islamic-led Government out of power. Diplomats say that Washington is concerned that a Government led by a religious party might be less supportive of a US attack on Saddam Hussein's regime in neighbouring Iraq.

However, the leader of the Islamic Party, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, has indicated that he might not oppose an Iraq operation. The party's website quotes Erdogan as saying that it is "impossible not to share the United States' sensitivities over the Iraqi regime." A recent poll for Deutsche Bank put the Justice and Development Party in the lead, with support from 19% of voters. A secular, nationalist bloc was second with 11%. No other party got above 10%, which is the minimum for getting seats in parliament. The poll, which surveyed 2,400 people in July, has a margin of error of 1.5%.

The fragmentation is not surprising. In recent elections, discontentment over the economy and endemic corruption has led Turks to turn to new parties, which are not perceived as tainted by past scandals.The lack of consensus also is a reflection of Turkey's contradictory impulses. It has had a secular Government for decades, although a religious party has won an election. Its people are Moslem, but have strong ties with the West and even with Israel. Turkey is an avowed democracy, but the military has ousted governments three times and maintains a strong say in domestic affairs. In Cubuk, a small farming town near Ankara, the capital, the people say this year's political choices are simple.