The long-awaited signing this weekend of a peace deal between Khartoum and the southern rebels to end fighting in oil-rich southern Sudan, is likely to create massive opportunities for neighboring countries through increased trade and oil transportation. The south, landlocked and politically reluctant to use the northern Port Sudan, will probably look for world trade across its borders.

"We will see traders rushing to southern Sudan to invest there, since that area is virtually unexploited and there is a vast market," Kenyan economist Robert Shaw told AFP in an interview in Nairobi where the peace deal would be signed tomorrow. "Southern Sudan is a blessing for traders because the economy there will start from scratch after 21 years of war," he added. Shaw felt that Kenya would have an advantage because there is fighting in northern Uganda "so many foreign investors would prefer to transfer their goods through Kenya."

Samuel Nyandemo, a development economist at the University of Nairobi said: "The Kenyan economy is set to gain millions of dollars in the first years of reconstruction of southern Sudan. Since Sudan is a member of COMESA (Common Market for East and Central Africa), Kenya will export most of its goods to southern Sudan."

Mentioning southern Sudan in his New Year speech, Kenyan President Mwai Kibaki said: "We are going to build roads and railway lines to that country." Last September, Kenya and the southern rebel Sudan People's Liberation Movement/Army (SPLM/A) agreed on the construction of the first 1,182-kilometer railway link between Juba in southern Sudan and Kenya's port of Mombassa. Work is to begin in July 2005 at an initial cost of 3.2 billion euros.

"First and foremost, southern Sudan is landlocked. This railway line will be used to link us to the outside world. It will also be the main route for our imports and exports," SPLM/A Commissioner for International Cooperation and Development Costello Garang Ring told AFP. "We also expect to use the rail to transport about 70,000 oil barrels a day to Kenya and other consumer goods as well," he added.

Kenyan officials said the government and SPLM/A have also been discussing plans to construct a pipeline from southern Sudan to Mombassa. "The port of Mombassa is more modern than Port Sudan (on the Red Sea), which the [Khartoum] government is currently using. When oil starts flowing to Mombassa, Kenya will get good cash," Shaw added. Sudan currently produces about 350,000 barrels of oil a day, most of which is extracted from wells in southern Sudan and exported through Port Sudan. Experts estimate the country's oil reserves at some two billion barrels.

"Our industrial products will get a bigger market because this area will just be emerging from a long war, so they have to depend on neighbors for a number of industrial goods," explained Ugandan Junior Trade Minister Richard Nduhura.

"With a peaceful southern Sudan, we expect big trade across the border," said Boniface Rodrigo, a Ugandan long-haul transporter. Southern Sudan, a area of 850,000 km˛, will also offer new opportunities in timber, which will be required for the construction of buildings once people start settling, a UN official said.

War erupted in southern Sudan in 1983, when the rebels rose up against Arab Khartoum, denouncing Muslim domination of the black, animist and Christian south. The conflict has claimed at least 1˝ million lives and displaced four million people.