Three weeks after Yasser Arafat's death, the old/new Palestinian leadership is navigating the rapids of succession. Last week, PLO Chairman Mahmoud Abbas, Palestinian Authority Prime Minister Ahmed Qurei and interim PA president Rouhi Fattouh played host to a procession of foreign ministers, each one blessing the new order, supporting the PA presidential elections on 9 January and expressing hope that Ariel Sharon's disengagement plan would somehow evolve into a peace process.

This week, the three went to Egypt and Jordan to garner support for the same goals and invest the new leadership with regional legitimacy. Next week Abbas, Qurei and Fattouh will visit Damascus, aiming to close the door on the cold war that existed between the PLO and Syria during so much of Arafat's leadership. They may also meet with Palestinian faction heads based in Damascus, including Hamas political leader Khaled Meshal.

But there have been squalls. Potentially the most damaging of these came after Fatah's choice of Abbas as its candidate for the PA presidency. The decision was taken by the movement's supreme Central Committee (FCC) and the Revolutionary Council (FRC), two bodies dominated by the so-called "old guard" -- Fatah leaders who returned with Arafat from exile in the mid-1990s and have been jealously guarding their positions ever since.


Abbas' candidacy was contested by the "young guard", Fatah leaders who rose to prominence in the first and second Intifadas but whose strength resides in unofficial, unrecognized bodies like the West Bank Higher Council and militias like the Al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades. The dispute was not over the candidate (since most wings of Fatah agreed that Abbas was the most suitable leader for what all see as a transitional period), but rather, over the way he was chosen, says PA minister and "young guard" leader, Qaddura Fares. "The process of choosing a candidate [for president] requires the greatest legitimacy, which is feasible only by involving the maximum number of Fatah activists. Legitimacy is definitely not enhanced by narrowing down the circle of decision to the Central Committee and Revolutionary Council."

It was a view with which imprisoned West Bank Fatah leader, Marwan Barghouti, agreed, buoyed by demands from many in the movement that he run against Abbas. For a few agonizing hours on 26 November it seemed that he might; a move that would cut Fatah's official leadership from its base. Following a four-hour meeting with Fares at Israel's Nafha prison the next day, however, Fares said that Barghouti decided to back Abbas, "in the interests of unity within Fatah and to avoid giving Israel a pretext not to negotiate with the Palestinian leadership."

Within 24 hours of Barghouti withdrawing his challenge, the FRC declared that on 4 August, 2005 - Arafat's birthday - Fatah's sixth general conference would be held; the first such convention in 15 years. This has been a long-standing demand of the "young guard" since the General Conference elects the FCC and FRC. And once that suffrage occurs, "we will thank the existing FCC and FRC for their contribution to the national cause and then tell them goodbye," says Fares.

On Wednesday evening Barghouti announced, in a statement read by his wife Fadwa, that he will contest the elections after all.

Abbas is aware that keeping Fatah together may well be the most difficult of the tasks ahead, not least because the "old guard" also has its militias and power bases and will not hesitate to activate them to maintain their positions. But there are other challenges. One is to persuade the militias to end what he sees as the self-defeating violence of the Intifada in favor of a peace strategy based on renewed negotiations with Israel and international and regional support. And for this he not only needs all wings of Fatah on board but also the Islamists of Hamas and Islamic Jihad. With Barghouti's decision to contest the vote, he has also chosen to deliberately split Fatah.

Hamas is signaling that it will accept a Palestinian ceasefire, at least for the period of Palestinian elections. But it wants a commitment from Abbas that parliamentary elections will follow the presidential one. It also wants "guarantees" that Israel will respond to any truce with the release of Palestinian prisoners and an end to its assassination and incursion polices.

On 28 November the FRC recommended that parliamentary elections be held on 15 May 2005, the anniversary of the Palestinian Naqba. As for the terms of the truce, Abbas will no doubt discuss these when he meets Meshal and other faction leaders in Damascus. Abbas is burnishing his legitimacy by remaining absolutely loyal to the "national constants" laid down by Arafat. He has reiterated that there can be no peace unless the Palestinian state has Jerusalem as its capital or without a resolution of the refugees' right of return based on UN resolution 194. He has ruled out a new interim agreement and promised that any final status agreement would be subject to a Palestinian national referendum. His problem is that none of this squares with Israel's and America's vision of the next phase, a new interim arrangement based on Israel's withdrawal from Gaza, de facto annexations of the West Bank courtesy of the settlement blocs and West Bank wall and a provisional Palestinian state that would give "temporary" covenant to both. If Abbas "cannot stop and reverse this project his future presidency is likely to be no more successful than his past premiership," says one Fatah "young guard" parliamentarian.

Note: Marwan Barghouti has twice entered the presidential race - and twice withdrawn to clear the field for Abbas. Abbas is in his debt, but if he wins may be unable to release Barghouti from jail, where he is serving five consecutive life sentences for murdering Israelis. Another very strong candidate, Hassan Khereisha, also withdrew (too late for mention in our Bulletin article). Palestinian democracy is not democratic.

Al Ahram Weekly, Egypt, 2 - 8 December, 2004
Summary of article by Graham Usher

Nabil Amr, the former Palestinian Information Minister who survived an assassination attempt in Ramallah earlier this year, has strongly criticized "rampant misgovernment, lawlessness and lack of accountability" in the Palestinian Authority (PA), warning that Palestinians have to choose between genuine democracy based on the rule of law, or the demise of their national aspirations. Amr returned this week to his hometown of Dura, southwest of Hebron, after a lengthy recuperation period in Germany, where he had his right leg amputated. It is widely believed that gunmen close to the late Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat were implicated in shooting Amr. The PA police have so far failed to apprehend the perpetrators; a fact Amr says epitomizes the incompetence and chaos permeating not only the Palestinian government but also the entire polity.

In an interview with Al-Ahram Weekly in Dura this week, Amr accused the PA of failing to deal "properly and seriously with the attempt on my life." "If this had happened anywhere else in the world, the perpetrator would have been caught within 24 hours!" he said. "But in Ramallah, those who are supposed to uphold the law and ensure our security have rushed to hide and protect the would-be assassin. They are preserving him so that in future he can make attempts on the life of others. Anyone who thinks that this is the best of all possible worlds does not know what he is talking about."

Amr harshly criticized Fatah, accusing the movement of lacking transparency and indulging in pointless rhetoric instead of facing reality. "For many years, we espoused resonant slogans. We turned truth into falsehood and falsehood into truth." Nonetheless, Amr remains convinced that Fatah is still able to "continue the march" in cooperation with the other Palestinian national and Islamic forces, which he described as "our sons and brothers." He said the Palestinian Authority needs a "thorough shakeup" encompassing all aspects of governance and administration. He specifically called for the unification of all security agencies into one apparatus under the command of the Palestinian government.

Asked if he was optimistic about reviving the peace process now that George W. Bush has been re-elected and Arafat, long accused by Israel of impeding peace efforts, is dead, Amr said much of the optimism was artificial. "We may get an opportunity, but it is far from guaranteed. Peace in this part of the world, and probably elsewhere as well, depends to a very large extent on the Americans' willingness to defuse the powder keg, which in this case is the Israeli occupation of our homeland. If America is willing to exert meaningful pressure on Israel to meet the requirements of peace, then there will be peace. Otherwise, we will continue going round in the same vicious circle." He described the Palestinian problem as the most important root cause of instability, tension and violence in the world today.

Amr insisted that Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen), Fatah's chosen candidate in the upcoming election, must be answerable to democratic Palestinian institutions. "Gone is the time when the leader could just ignore them. Abu Mazen will have a platform and a detailed program of action, which he must follow, and he will be accountable for everything he does."

Amr also attacked Ariel Sharon's Israeli government, which he said was responsible for the collapse of the Abu Mazen government in 2003. "They could have helped by observing the ceasefire with the resistance groups and by releasing Palestinian prisoners. But instead they chose to kill."

Amr, who was received on his return to Dura by thousands of well-wishers and relatives, vowed to continue to speak up and defend what he believed was right. Some observers in the occupied territories have suggested that if Abu Mazen is elected, he may pick Amr to form the next Palestinian cabinet. But Amr said this was of no importance. "The important thing," he said, "is to get our feet on the right track."

Note: Amr is disingenuous. His "homeland" includes all of Israel. Israel owes Abu Mazen nothing and he should expect nothing unless he proves himself capable of destroying the infrastructure of Hamas, Islamic Jihad and Fatah terrorism. The Palestinians are the godfathers of the Moslem terrorism against which the United States is fighting a war, so they should have no great expectations from there either. The onus of proving themselves a civilized people in on them. The reaction to continued terrorism, including the well-planned blowing up of an Israeli Bedouin military unit that killed five, will only get harsher and the attempt to disguise such acts as part of a "circle of violence" is wearing thin.