The tide of public opinion seems to bear Saad Hariri irresistibly to a leading position on the political scene. Political analyst Samir Kassir comments:
“In the people’s conscience, Rafik Hariri is bigger dead than alive. These elections have turned into a plebiscite”. The election lists of the 35-year-old businessman run under the banner of “loyalty to the memory of martyr Rafik Hariri”. “If you want the truth about the assassination of our Rafik and if you want to find the murderers, vote for the lists of the martyr of independence”, some banners displayed in Beirut streets read.

All the major rivals to the Hariri family have decided to stand aside. Nine candidates on Saad Hariri’s list have already been elected without a single vote being cast, and another 10 are almost assured of victory. “It’s a tsunami that nobody can challenge. Anyone taking the risk would be accused of playing the game of [Hariri’s] murderers”, said potential rival Saadeddin Khaled, explaining his decision not to run.

General Aoun, after breaking off contacts with Hariri and Jumblatt, had a series of meetings to prepare the electoral alliances he intends to announce in the next few days. He declared his intention of standing for a parliamentary seat in the impending elections, independently from the rest of the opposition in the mostly-Christian constituency of Jbeil-Kesruwan, north of Beirut, in the third round of legislative polls on June 12th. Not wishing to announce an electoral list, he said he would forge alliances in other constituencies with “new, young faces”. Such constituencies might include North Lebanon, Metn, Zahl י and the West Beka’a. Nor did he rule out the possibility of having candidates in the Shouf District, a Jumblatt stronghold, since he felt that the concept of a “fief” was incompatible with democracy. Thus the divorce between the general and the opposition seemed final. His statement was the latest sign that the formidable opposition of Christians and Muslims that, backed by international pressure, forced Syria to end its 29-year military presence in Lebanon last month, was far from united. Aoun had previously announced that Hariri and Jumblatt had refused to include some of his candidates on their joint list.

Monday Morning, Lebanon, 30 May 2005
Summary of report on Hassan Nasrallah

At the Hezballah rally last week in the Southern town of Bint Jbeil, the main speaker was Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, Secretary-General of Hezballah, who spoke about the elections and the arms of the Resistance. He had proposed the postponement of the legislative elections for three months in order to allow the drafting of a “just and balanced” electoral law, which “cannot be written in a few days,” adding: “Unfortunately we are subject to incessant pressures from the US, France and, Kofi Annan, who demand that the polls take place within the constitutional time limit.”

Nasrallah stressed that he would announce his alliances soon and “the party’s choice will not be based on parliamentary seats but rather on the position of political forces regarding the Resistance and its weapons…. In this context, I reaffirm that all internal matters should be examined and settled by dialogue and should be supported by a consensus. I stress that concessions will have to be made by all the parties concerned. To protect the Resistance is to protect Lebanon. We now find ourselves under foreign influence, and certain Lebanese are wagering on the United States, as others once wagered on Israel, which left them in the lurch after exploiting them in its own interests. America will do the same and turn its back on its allies when it no longer needs them. We should depend only on our unity and must not allow the Americans to impose their priorities. The Lebanese who gathered in Riad Solh Square and in Martyrs’ Square defined their priorities: implementing the Ta’if Agreement, achieving reform, combating corruption and preserving the weapons of the Resistance. Woe to anyone who dares to touch these weapons, for that would be folly. We want to preserve stability and national unity. We do not wish to attack anyone or allow anyone to attack Lebanon. But if anyone thinks of disarming the Resistance, we will fight them, because such an act would serve Israel and its interests. Any hand ready to touch the weapons of the Resistance would be Israeli, paid by Israel, and we shall cut it off”.

Nasrallah noted that Hezballah possessed more than 12,000 rockets:
“Some people think we have 12,000 rockets, Katyushas or others, but we have more,” he told his supporters: “The whole North of occupied Palestine - its settlements, airports, fields and farms are within the firing range of the Islamic Resistance fighters. Our rockets are valuable because the Zionists do not know their number or where they are kept. They are fighting a hidden force which can catch them off-guard at any time”. He concluded: “We are deeply concerned about Lebanon’s unity and destiny and we are determined to safeguard them with all our might”.

Katyushas have a range of some 10 km. Israel’s security establishment is on the alert for increased Hezballah activity while Israel is dealing with its withdrawal from the Gaza Strip this summer. Military officials fear Hezballah may take advantage of Israel’s preoccupation with Gaza to show its support of the Palestinian cause by bombarding Northern Israel.

Walid Jumblatt, who attended the Bint Jbeil rally, improvised a lower-key address in which he said, in substance: “We are ready to cooperate with all sides, particularly Hezballah, and to give all sectors of opinion their rights in every region. No one can presume to limit these rights”.

Meanwhile, Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, who presided at another rally, held at Maarak י , stated that “anyone who believes the present battle is between the loyalists and the opposition is wrong. It is in fact a confrontation with those who are trying to prevent the establishment of a law-abiding state in order to continue to share spoils and maintain their hegemony”. He added: “The battle starts here at Maarak י ”, and denounced “the offensive of which Lebanon is now the target aiming to neutralize it and prevent it from playing its Arab role. How long will Israel thumb its nose at UN resolutions and continue to frustrate the peace process? ”

Boutros Harb, MP for Kornet Shahwan, brought up the “Geagea affair” and denounced the failure to settle it before the elections. He stated that Geagea, the former leader of the Lebanese Forces, was imprisoned for 11 years, in contravention of the Ta’if Agreement, and this had prevented national reconciliation. “Unity is impossible without the liberation of Dr. Geagea…. He has not recovered his freedom due to the bad faith of a certain official [Nabih Berri], who has raised a question of ‘appropriateness’ [concerning the family of the late Prime Minister Rashid Karami] to quash the parliamentary session that was to discuss this matter. Harb concluded: “It is certain that Dr. Geagea’s liberation, following Aoun’s return, would have created a climate not at all favorable to the current Administration”.