As the growing beat of war drums sounds the threat of war in Iraq, international oil majors and their governments are preparing for the battle to stake claims on Iraq's vast oil reserves, the second-biggest in the world. Iraq has promised mainly French, Russian and Chinese companies, led by TotalFinaElf and LUKoil, the prime choice of developing the country's massive but neglected oil resources, although questions are being raised whether such arrangements would be honoured in a post-Saddam Iraq.

UN sanctions have starved Iraq's oil sector of the $30 billion to $40 billion dollars in investment calculated to be necessary to rebuild and develop the country's oil deposits, stirring oil companies' appetites for a piece of the expected action.

Analysts at Deutsche Bank said in a research report: "We doubt that the Russian, French and Chinese governments would completely surrender their economic interests, and support (or lack of opposition) to US military action may well come at the price of a proviso that they would have a post-Saddam economic role." Royal Institute of International Affairs researcher Valerie Marcel agreed, saying in a recent study: "A key issue for all the companies that have invested time to negotiate these contracts has been whether the agreements currently in place will survive a change of regime in Iraq... In the event of an invasion, the future of these agreements may hinge on the result of negotiations with the United States and their countries' support for US policy in Iraq."

French oil giant TotalFinaElf, which had been active in Iraq for decades long before the current sanctions, is in the pole position to lead the scramble into a post-Saddam Iraq, having initialled potentially lucrative agreements for two of Iraq's most promising fields. TotalFinaElf head of exploration and production, Pierre de Margerie, said recently: "Once the situation is clarified, we hope to have a chance to defend our position."

The biggest Russian oil company, LUKoil, signed a contract to develop the vast West Qurna field, although last week Iraq said it had made a "final decision" to cancel it because "over the past three years the Russian firm has not invested one dollar in the project," as interim Iraq oil minister Samir Abdul al-Nejm said on February 10th.

However, Iraq has dealt with numerous other groups from Russia and elsewhere about developing its oil resources. American oil firms have been notably absent, having been excluded from Iraq's huge oil reserves since the end of the 1980s when Washington-Baghdad relations deteriorated. A recent report by the Council on Foreign Relations, a US think-tank, and the James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy at Rice University warned against legal haggling between companies that have agreements with Iraq and those that are likely to want to get in on the game. The latter recommended: "Prolonged legal conflicts over contracts could delay the development of important fields in Iraq and hamper a new government's ability to expand production.... It may be advisable to pre-establish a legitimate (preferably UN-mandated) legal framework for vetting pre-hostility exploration agreements."

The stakes in a legal battle for shares in Iraq's oil sector are huge given the country's vast reserves.

President Saddam Hussein said yesterday during a meeting with visiting leader of Russia's Communist Party Gennady Zyuganov that the Iraqi people don't want war, but will not compromise their independence, dignity and right to live as free men. Iraq respects the freedom, sovereignty and dignity of others, including the US, if they respect the freedom and sovereignty of Iraq and the Arabs. "But if America tries to attack, is possessed by devils and imagines it can achieve the goals it talks about, it will see the determination of the Iraqi people and, God willing, we shall defeat it."

The Russian delegation includes Deputy Speaker of the Duma Council Bafel Yurdcove, who represents the Agricultural Party, Andrieh Khramakov, a representative of the Unity Party in the Duma and Vitch Slav Matodov, a member of the Russian-Arab relations desk.

Zyuganov expressed his pleasure to see President Hussein and passed on President Vladimir Putin's greetings. His visit is part of the Duma campaign to show solidarity with Iraq's people. Zyuganov described the Duma's efforts to unveil the US motives for attacking Iraq and to foil the aggression. World public opinion condemned US behavior. Demonstrations protesting against the US threats were held in more than 100 Russian cities. He said that the US threatens all Arabs, Moslems, Russia and even the European Union. President Hussein asked the guest to convey his greetings to President Putin, the Duma and the Russian people.