Western media reported negotiations between European diplomats and senior members of the Bush administration on future plans for the Middle East. On February 9th the Washington Post ran an article stating that the Bush administration has launched a bid to promote democracy in the 'greater Middle East' on the model used to press for freedoms in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe. No details were given, but it is likely to be a package of incentives to Middle East states if they take concrete steps towards political reform, improve their record on human rights – particularly by empowering women - and introduce economic reforms. The incentives include an offer by Western countries "to expand political engagement, increase aid, facilitate membership in the World Trade Organization and foster security arrangements."
American officials said the arrangement envisioned is similar to the Helsinki accords signed in 1975 between the US, the Soviet Union and almost all European countries, which were designed to recognize disputed post-World War II borders and establish a mechanism for settling other disagreements. However human rights and fundamental freedoms became key parts of the treaty, giving the West leverage to promote and protect dissident groups in the Soviet bloc and urge greater freedoms for its residents. "There is a belief that [Helsinki] contributed to bringing Europe together and played a significant role in tearing down the Soviet Union," a State Department official told the Washington Post.
The statement reinforces the worst fears of Arab regimes. Saudi Arabia's Foreign Minister Saud Al Faisal put it bluntly when he said that his country refuses to enter into collective security and cooperation agreements with the West on the lines of Helsinki, adding, "The Helsinki accords resulted in the disintegration of the Soviet Union." As part of the "Greater Middle East" initiative the United States seems to be planning a collective security arrangement for the important states of the region - including Israel.
A late January report in the Financial Times revealed that the US and Turkey are planning to invite six Middle East countries including Egypt and Israel to the Istanbul NATO summit in June 2004. "NATO diplomats say the initiative includes a proposal to enlarge the 'Partnership for Peace' program - set up after the cold war to pull East European countries into NATO's sphere - to include Morocco, Tunisia and Qatar.
Arab experts dismissed the idea of collective security arrangements. Wahid Abdel Meguid, from the Al Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies felt that Israel is still perceived as the enemy by many Arabs and it is "foolish to assume that you can make such arrangements between countries that have different policies and different security concepts."
The Europeans were quick to make their own proposals. Germany's ambassador in Cairo told reporters that his country is developing an initiative calling for more political, security and economic cooperation between Europe and the Middle East, in addition to promoting democratization measures to restrict the dangers of terrorism. "These measures are not to be imposed on the countries of the region," the embassy spokesperson told the Cairo Times. "We are just putting forward ideas, and we want the feedback of the parties who are concerned with the issue."
At first glance one would expect the proposals by Germany to be welcomed in the Arab world. "After all, European initiatives are generally more understanding of Arab conditions than the Americans," said Arab League spokesman Hisham Youssef. There is also less reason to fear coercion from the Europeans than from the Americans, especially in the light of the hawkish mood of the current Bush administration. However the German announcements included statements that were received negatively in the Arab world. Forgoing his earlier insistence that priority should be given to resolving the Arab-Israeli conflict, the German ambassador said it was important not to let the conflict act as a barrier to political reforms.
"It is useless to make arrangements for a stable and prosperous region without addressing the central issue of the Arab-Israeli conflict," Youssef told the Cairo Times. "The proposals will be unbalanced unless they address the Palestinian cause and the issue of weapons of mass destruction in the region, which are mainly possessed by Israel." Another source of discontent is that both initiatives are likely to be discussed at the G-8, NATO and EU-US summits, all taking place in June. "How can such initiatives be discussed in forums that do not include Arab countries?" said Youssef.
The US embassy defended its position by saying it is natural to announce the initiative at one of the June summits, since the US and the EU are putting resources into it. Embassy spokesman Philip Frayne said. "This does not mean there won't be consultation and extensive discussion with partners in the region - there will be."
However, it will take more than words to comfort skeptical Arab rulers and a worried Arab public. The regimes see many signs suggesting that the United States is determined to enforce change or "reforms," while the public - initially desperate for real reforms - suspect that the foreign calls for democracy are only an excuse to interfere in the region and redraw it in accordance with the West's own interests. The occupation of Iraq and the disinterest in Palestinian suffering have reinforced those fears.
